Home > Uncategorized > A report on the latest scientific understanding of climate change by Prof. Ray Bates.

A report on the latest scientific understanding of climate change by Prof. Ray Bates.

via Papers – Office of the Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government.

A review by Prof. Ray Bates of scientific data and developments related to climate change since the most recent IPCC report (No. 4, 2007).

From the introduction:

1. Introduction
The 4th IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Report was issued in 2007 and preparations are now in progress for the 5th Report, which is scheduled to be issued in 2013. Activity in climate monitoring and climate modelling continues to expand worldwide. An increasing number of climate parameters are now being monitored by satellite. The resolution of the models is becoming finer as computer resources allow (the typical resolutions of global models at the times of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th IPCC Reports were 500km, 250km, 180km and 110km, respectively). Despite the advances in modelling, convergence towards a single accepted value of climate sensitivity (the equilibrium global mean temperature increase resulting from a hypothetical CO2 doubling) between different modelling centres has not yet been achieved. The climate sensitivity estimated by the standard versions of the global models used in IPCC 2007 peaks in the range 2 to 4.5 °C, with some model versions giving values outside this range, on either side. There is little to indicate that convergence to a single accepted figure will be achieved in the near future.
The present survey looks mainly at climate trends as revealed by observations over the past few years.

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